After you’ve landed on the transfer market for the first time, how are you able to know what is and what isn’t a great deal?!
As a follow up to my post a couple of days ago which helps introduce the basics of Sorare to managers playing Football Index and Footstock I’m going to delve a bit deeper now into what influences player card values.
Transfer market and trade values are a hugely subjective part of the game and the aim of this article is to outline the main factors I think require consideration before you spend any money.
Since February 2019, I’ve spent approx. 350 ETH / £63,000 on Sorare New Auctions and Secondary Market purchases. Over the same period I’ve received over 290 ETH / £52,000 from Player Sales and Manager Trades. This doesn’t make me an expert, but I’d like to think I’ve got a reasonable eye for a fair deal!
What Impacts the Value of Sorare Player Cards?
After being asked for tips, I am then normally asked how I go about valuing the different types of cards on the market.
This is completely natural and the good news is, any knowledge you have of real-life football and from having played other credible football related games can only help you.
Variables I consider when evaluating a Sorare Player Card
- Scarcity / Supply
- Utility / Future Earnings Potential
- Form (Hype) / Injuries
- Your Actual Needs / Impact on Close Rivals
- Player Age
- Collector Value / Fan Appeal
- Previous Sale Prices
- Manager Characteristics
- Game Metrics
- Predicting the Future / Upcoming Game Changes
I’ve listed these in the order of priority that generally works well for me but more often than not, there will be a few of these that you’ll need to combine in order to come up with a final price and decision.
Card Scarcity and Supply — For me this has to be the most important consideration. Scarcity is one of the founding pillars that the game is built upon.
It is more obvious to see the impact of scarcity when you see a Unique up for sale as it is clear that there is only 1 version per season that can be produced and sold/won. However, even though there are up to 10 Super Rare versions of each player and 100 Rare versions, we have an increasing amount of managers playing the game and when the cards are sold, they are sold.
For me, I am always thinking ahead about what might the demand be for a particular card after the next 500 managers join or the next 5000.
— Not all clubs joined Sorare at the beginning of the season and some players would’ve only joined their club in the January transfer window. Supply of these cards is likely to be much lower of these and a player with only a few Rares in circulation could be as valuable as a Super Rare version of a more widely distributed player.
Card Utility + Future Earnings Potential — For some managers I know this is their number 1 criteria. Buying cards at a value which is justified based on the potential value of the prizes it can help you win.
Whilst 1 card is unlikey to win you a top prize by itself, a strong performance can go a long way towards beating the threshold needed to win a tournament prize. Create a strong and consistent team of 5 cards and you can generate a nice yield/dividend in prizes over the course of a season.
Finishing first in Division 3 or 4 should on average net you over 1 ETH / £180 in prizes, and given you can re-use your cards every week and you never have to place them at risk to enter a tournament, you can hopefully appreciate the earnings potential each card gives you.
— As your collection grows you’ll give yourself a lot more possible team permutations. Don’t just have a look at the fixtures on the upcoming weekend. Take into consideration the different league seasons, who is maybe playing whilst others are not. This season in particular has led to a very fragmented fixture list and so think about the benefits of having a diversified collection that will allow you to always field a tournament team.
Adjustment for Form + Injuries — I think this one is pretty straight forward. Prices in Sorare will of course be influenced by a players form and fitness in real life. When managers chase in-form players you’ll see spikes in the prices they sell for and when players are out of form it won’t be unusual to see them being dumped on the market so that managers can recycle their value into another player that could be of more immediate use.
— You can also speculate on players that fall outside of the leagues currently supported by Opta. We have been told that Sorare are in negotiations to sign agreements with the Top 20 Leagues in the world, which means players in leagues such as the Scottish Premiership, Liga MX and the Ukranian Premier League should at some point gain coverage.
Value according to our Actual Needs / Impact the purchase might have on Close Rivals — If you already have 3 versions of a player then you probably won’t value a card as highly as someone that is after their first version, but conversely, think about whether a manager might be stock-piling a particular player with the strong belief they can profit from his future value or ongoing utility (I found myself selecting 4x De Ligt last week in 4 different tournaments).
Whatever your strategy, if you are encountering the same rivals in the Divisions you are regularly competing in, I find it worth checking and comparing their collections so that if you also come up against them at auction or spot a card on the secondary market that could significantly strengthen them and lessen your chances, there should probably be a value attributed to this.
A Players Age — Another obvious one to most. Young players in this game have crazy longevity. Some might not be playing regularly enough to make an impact in the weekly tournaments, but if a youth player can go on to establish a nice career at a main club, then their early cards could grow in value significantly.
Older players despite not having age on their side could have longer term appeal to collectors due to their status in the game and shorter supply of cards issued. We’ve already had weekly challenges that can only be competed in with players over 30 years old and Sorare have hinted that there could be utility added in the future for retired players.
— Remember that you can train unlimited cards each week in the SO5 Fantasy Training League. So, I would be recommend to use this so that you can level up young players ahead of them breaking into regular first team football.
Collector Value / Fan Appeal — If and when you are lucky enough that Sorare announce the team you support, it can be difficult to resist the temptation of wanting to own a version of your favourite players or entire squad (so I’ve been told!). So, whilst you might be considering a player to use in an upcoming tournament, another manager might be a genuine fan of that player or team they play for.
Whilst I know of genuine collectors playing the game, I don’t think we’ve even scratched the surface yet of the true collector market.
We’ve recently seen Unique cards of Maradona and Cristiano Ronaldo who are arguably the 2 biggest names currently in the game go up for sale and whilst you can often successfully predict an approximate ending price for most card auctions, with cards such as these, conventional valuations go out the window.
— There are now between 25,000 and 30,000 cards in circulation and amongst these you’ll be able to find a few short-prints, mis-prints and error cards. None that I know of give any utility advantages and these might never attract any interest that translates into a guaranteed profit, but it is not uncommon for collectors to pay a premium for innocuous subtleties that exist on cards.
— Knowing that achievements will become a much more significant part of the game in the future, be mindful that one day there might be cards that you own today that could have hidden value in helping you to complete these in the future.
Previous Sales Prices — A logical starting point for new managers would be to research an equivalent cards recent sales price. This along with a whole lot more can be done easily enough on both SorareData and Cryptoslam
If you are the type of manager that does value the comfort of knowing what someone else has recently paid for a card then the only word of caution I would share is that be careful not to get sucked along with the herd mentality.
In my opinion, historic data should only be used as a very rough guide. You have to really understand the conditions of all previous similar auctions to get a clearer picture of why the card sold for what it did. Without knowing things like who was competing for the previous cards, the timing (was it just before a gameweek), the condition of the player (were they injured previously?) was it part of a larger trade? etc. you can only speculate as to why a cards previous sale price was as it was.
You also need to check to make sure that the card you are comparing it against isn’t a special edition card (e.g. Ambassador Card / West Ham FA Cup Anniversary) as these will attract different values to the base Rare and Super Rare cards.
— Last but not least, remember that each card was purchased in ETH and that the value of ETH has changed a lot over the last 12+ months. A card that previously sold for 1 ETH could have been the equivalent to £100 or £200 depending on the exchange rate at the time of purchase.
Manager characteristics —Following how different managers behave at auction and on the secondary market can also help you determine the likelihood of a player card being relisted in the future and its possible value.
To keep it simple I’ll create some basic categories that you may like to keep in mind when you see cards for sale!
- Flippers — Nice and easy one to start. Managers that buy a card at auction and within a short space of time (sometimes a matter of minutes) re-list the card just bought at a higher price. The cherry on top is a cleverly worded advert on the Discord!
Now I’m going to disclose that I’m not adverse to a bit of old fashioned flipping myself. I’ve come to accept that this is part and parcel in a market place that has yet to mature and as the old saying goes ‘if you can’t beat em, join em!’ - Buy & Hold — Again, nice and easy to spot if you use sites like SorareData or Cryptoslam. If you click on a Manager Profile and see a lot of spending but not much coming in, then you might find it challenging to prise a card away from this type of manager. It’s probably wiser to find an alternative version of the card and attempt to do business with another owner. Not everyone has unlimited access to ETH though and so it might just be the manager in question hasn’t had the need to sell to date and/or they just haven’t been given an offer they’ve felt acceptable. In my opinion it’s still worth establishing contact with the manager if you can to find out exactly where you stand.
— Whilst you might think every card has its price, there have been trade offers from manager to manager in excess of 20 ETH for some Unique cards that have been rejected. - Win-Win Traders — In a game that’s growing there are more than enough opportunities to create solid trade proposals where both parties win. By getting to understand another managers motivation you can look to set the tone for a long-term trade partnership. Most managers will chat openly and explain what they want and the value they place on this. Great deals are to be had when you can find a trade where you both have something of interest to one another if you can agree on baseline values.
— Collaboration with other managers is almost always going to be cheaper than buying only from the auction house. Why spend more when you can achieve the same end goal for less? - The Outliers — Often you’ll see a card listed for sale and you will just have no idea how or why the manager decided on the price it’s for sale for. You might occasionally see a sniping opportunity way below what you consider to be fair value, but I’m willing to bet that 90% of the cards you see on the secondary market are priced speculatively in the hopes a lazy or less informed manager takes the bait.
— There are always exceptions that disprove the rule and one mans trash is another mans treasure. But, if you see a card at twice or three times the price of something similar, do some basic research first to determine if there is a justification for its inflated price tag.
Please don’t take these descriptions too seriously. Anyone exercising basic duediligence is going to be able to identify managers that display these patterns of behaviour.
The transfer market is now 24/7 and operates smoothly with all types of managers co-exisiting within and as your own collection grows, you’ll start to be seen by others in accordance to your own transfer and manager behaviour, so choose wisely how you might like others to view you!
Game Metrics — Understanding the general health and underlying growth within the game is another great indicator to help you spot macro trends in player values.
Since inception the platform has enjoyed consistent new manager sign-ups as well as gaining spikes in new managers registrations immediately after any major team or corporate announcement.
You can get a good sense from the forums and social media feeds how the game is being received by the wider crypto and gaming communities which right now all re-affirm that the game is trending positively in both sales volume and number of managers playing.
Planning ahead the Future — There is always information out there that can help you to forecast potential future trends in the game. The team conduct regular AMA’s (Ask Me Anything) which gives us managers the opportunity to ask questions to the Sorare CEO, Nicolas Julia.
If you haven’t read it, I’d encourage you to read the transcript of the last AMA from May. The date for the next AMA is set to be shared soon, so start getting your questions ready for this and let’s see if we can learn anything that can help us with our player valuations!
Valuing a Player — Summary
As I went deeper into this post, I decided not to give specific card examples as the market is constantly moving and it might be misleading to anyone that reads this in a few weeks or months time.
What I am happy to do next is make myself available on both Twitter and Discord (username YNWA) to offer an opinion on a card or trade you might be considering.
https://twitter.com/blockchainYNWA
Just drop me a DM or tag me in your tweet to get my attention and I look forward to discussing specific player card values with some of you soon!
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